Current development ·
2025 emissions-gap assessment
UNEP's 2025 assessment compares projected warming under current policies with pathways implied by stated national commitments.
What changed
UNEP published its 2025 Emissions Gap Report on 4 November 2025. It distinguishes a current-policies projection from a projection assuming full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These are scenarios, not observed future temperatures or interchangeable forecasts.
Foundation connections
Follow climate change for greenhouse-gas forcing and the difference between mitigation and adaptation. Follow environment–climate–biodiversity interconnections for ecological effects. A change in projected temperature depends on the scenario and methods; it is not itself a measured change in emissions.
Exam use and limits
- Prelims: Distinguish an NDC pledge, its full-implementation scenario and policies currently in force.
- Mains: Ask whether ambition, implementation and finance align, and state which scenario a figure belongs to.